START HERE / 03

Build Your Decision Process.

Turn each important opportunity into a visible sequence from relevance and evidence to decision, monitoring and review.

YOUR OUTPUTResearch standardComparison setSizing ruleReview triggers

OpportunityRelevanceEvidenceAlternativesRiskDecide or deferMonitorReview

0 of 7 answered0%

What must make an opportunity relevant enough to research?

It fits my objectives and time horizonIt is within my circle of competenceIt has a clear role in the portfolioAll three conditions should be present

Primary-source informationIndependent supporting evidenceEvidence that could contradict the thesisAll three forms of evidence

Holding cash or taking no actionAn existing portfolio holdingCredible comparable opportunitiesAll three alternatives

How permanent capital loss could occurLiquidity and portfolio concentrationKey assumptions and invalidation conditionsAll three risk dimensions

Risk capacity and total portfolio exposureConfidence in the thesisLiquidity and time horizonAll three, with risk capacity as the limit

Defer the decisionProceed with a smaller positionSeek independent reviewUse a predefined rule before choosing

Include changes in assumptions, evidence, price, portfolio exposure or time horizon.

Answer all seven questions to create your process map.